An agroclimatic probability study of the economics of fallow-seeded and continuous spring wheat in southern saskatchewan
✍ Scribed by W. Baier
- Book ID
- 102979135
- Publisher
- Elsevier Science
- Year
- 1971
- Weight
- 925 KB
- Volume
- 9
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0002-1571
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✦ Synopsis
BAIER, W., 1972.
An agroclimatic probability study of the economics of fallow-seeded and continuous spring wheat in southern Saskatchewan. Agric. MeteoroL, This analysis of the economics of spring wheat grown on fallow in a two-year rotation as compared with continuous wheat grown in the Brown soil zone of southern Saskatchewan includes three phases:
(1) the estimation of spring soil moisture by a meteorological soil water budgeting technique (versatile budget) and the verification of the estimates against observations over 20 years;
(2) the prediction of average and probable yields from fallow-seeded wheat fields in twoyear rotation and from continuous wheat using published water use-yield relationships; and
(3) the evaluation of average and probable net returns from fallow-seeded wheat and continuous wheat using the estimated yields and published data on production costs.
Spring soil moisture estimates were significantly correlated with the corresponding observations on fallow (r = 0.78) as well as on stubble (r = 0.73) lands. The observed and estimate means over 20 years did not differ significantly and the standard errors of estimate were about 1.2 inches. Estimated average wheat yields (bu/acre) from continuous wheat were 71~ of yields from fallow-wheat. In three out of ten years net return from continuous wheat were less than those from fallow-seeded wheat. Based on an average farm wheat price of $1.65 per bushel, average (strictly medium = 50% probability) annual net returns per cultivated acre were $13.23 for continuous wheat seeded over the whole area and $9.53 for fallow wheat in a two-year rotation seeded over half of the area under cultivation. But probable net returns fluctuated more widely for continuous wheat than for fallow-seeded wheat. One inch of water beyond an initial six inches of available water yielded $2.53 in terms of additional net returns from fallow-seeded wheat and $5.05 from continuous wheat.
The use of the proposed techniques for evaluating economic benefits in various soil and climatic zones by simulated changes in the crop rotation program is demonstrated.