Air quality and resource development. A risk assessment in the hunter region in Australia by Jakeman, A. J. and Simpson, R. W., CRES Monograph No. 16, Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
✍ Scribed by Bruce Beck
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1988
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 128 KB
- Volume
- 7
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0277-6693
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Few readers of this journal, I suspect, will be familiar with the problems of modelling and forecasting the behaviour of environmental systems.
Seen from a distance, the popular image of an environmental system's model might well be the early 'world dynamics' models of Forrester, first published nearly two decades ago (Forrester, 1971; also Meadows et al, 1972). In their time, Forrester's work and its derivatives focused much critical, fruitful debate on the importance of the environmental consequences of technological and economic progress. Behind the scenes they did more: they also focused much critical, fruitful debate on the nature of forecasting the behaviour of such global, environmental/economic systems (Thissen, 1978).
More recently, and equally of momentous, global importance, has been the accident at Chernobyl. The transport and dispersion of the radioactive isotopes from that release can be simulated rather accurately across Europe (ApSimon and Wilson, 1986); and doubtless (although one hopes it will never be necessary) the forecasting of future release trajectories and deposition characteristics will have been much improved as a result.
Beneath these grander examples of environmental forecasting lies the vast majority of more humble research in which we are all engaged. In the late 1960s and early 1970s there was a rather na'ive asumption that environmental modelling and forecasting would automatically make environmental decision-making more timely, relevant, and effective. Nowadays, we are more realistic. We know that providing solid analysis to assist in making choices among.policy alternatives requires a little more than jotting down and solving the odd differential equation or two.