AIDS Epidemiology: Methodological Issues

✍ Scribed by Mitchell H. Gail, Philip S. Rosenberg (auth.), Nicholas P. Jewell, Klaus Dietz, Vernon T. Farewell (eds.)

• Publisher: Birkhäuser Basel
• Year: 1992
• Tongue: English
• Leaves: 412
• Edition: 1
• Category: Library

✦ Synopsis

In 1974, the Societal Institute of the Mathematical Sciences (SIMS) initiated a series of five-day Research Application Conferences (RAC's) at Alta, Utah, for the purpose of probing in depth societal fields in light of their receptivity to mathematical and statistical analysis. The first eleven conferences addressed ecosystems, epidemiology, energy, environmental health, time series and ecological processes, energy and health, energy conversion and fluid mechanics, environmental epidemiology: risk assessment, atomic bomb survival data: utilization and analysis, modem statistical methods in chronic disease epidemiology and scientific issues in quantitative cancer risk assess­ ment. These Proceedings are a result of the twelfth conference on Statistical Methodology for Study of the AIDS Epidemic which was held in 1991 at the Mathematical Sciences Research Institute, Berkeley, California. For five days, 45 speakers and observers contributed their expertise in the relevant biology and statistics. The presentations were timely and the discussion was both enlightening and at times spirited. Members of the Program Committee for the Conference were Klaus Dietz (University of Tiibingen, Germany), Vernon T. Farewell (University of Waterloo, Ontario), and Nicholas P. Jewell (University of California, Berke­ ley) (Chair). The Conference was supported by a grant to SIMS from the National Institute of Drug Abuse. D. L. Thomsen, Jr.

✦ Table of Contents

Front Matter....Pages i-xvi
Front Matter....Pages xvii-xvii
Perspectives on Using Backcalculation to Estimate HIV Prevalence and Project AIDS Incidence....Pages 1-38
Statistical Methods for Reconstructing Infection Curves....Pages 39-60
Uncertainty About the Incubation Period of AIDS and Its Impact on Backcalculation....Pages 61-80
A Comprehensive Back-Calculation Framework for the Estimation and Prediction of AIDS Cases....Pages 81-104
Use of Empirical Transformations in Nonparametric Back-projection of Aids Incidence Data....Pages 105-122
The HIV Epidemic in New York City; Statistical Methods for Projecting AIDS Incidence and Prevalence....Pages 123-140
Front Matter....Pages 141-141
Triangles in Heterosexual HIV Transmission....Pages 143-155
Structured Population Models for HIV Infection Pair Formation and Non-constant Infectivity....Pages 156-173
Weak Linkage Between HIV Epidemics in Homosexual Men and Intravenous Drug Users....Pages 174-208
Front Matter....Pages 209-209
Marker Models in Survival Analysis and Applications to Issues Associated with AIDS....Pages 211-230
Modeling a Marker of Disease Progression and Onset of Disease....Pages 231-255
The Relationship of CD4 Counts over Time to Survival in Patients with AIDS: Is CD4 a Good Surrogate Marker?....Pages 256-274
Modeling The Relationship Between Progression Of CD4-Lymphocyte Count And Survival Time....Pages 275-296
Recovery of Information and Adjustment for Dependent Censoring Using Surrogate Markers....Pages 297-331
Front Matter....Pages 333-333
Semi Parametric Estimation of the Incubation Period of AIDS....Pages 335-349
Using Semiparametric Risk Sets for the Analysis of Cross-Sectional Duration Data....Pages 350-365
Is Earlier Better for AZT Therapy in HIV Infection? A Mathematical Model....Pages 366-383
On the Estimation Problem of Mixing/Pair Formation Matrices with Applications to Models for Sexually-Transmitted Diseases....Pages 384-402

✦ Subjects

Medicine/Public Health, general