Content: Engineering Risk Management Introduction Objectives and Practices New Challenges Perspectives on Theories of Systems and Risk Introduction General Systems Theory Risk and Decision Theory Engineering Risk Management Foundations of Risk and Decision Theory Introduction Elements of Probability Theory The Value Function Risk and Utility Functions Multiattribute Utility-The Power Additive Utility Function Applications to Engineering Risk Management A Concluding Thought A Risk Analysis Framework in Engineering Enterprise Systems Introduction Perspectives on Engineering Enterprise Systems A Framework for Measuring Enterprise Capability Risk A Risk Analysis Algebra Information Needs for Portfolio Risk Analysis The "Cutting Edge" An Index to Measure Risk Co-Relationships Introduction RCR Postulates, Definitions, and Theory Computing the RCR Index Applying the RCR Index: A Resource Allocation Example Summary Functional Dependency Network Analysis Introduction FDNA Fundamentals Weakest Link Formulations FDNA (alpha, beta) Weakest Link Rule Network Operability and Tolerance Analyses Special Topics Summary A Decision-Theoretic Algorithm for Ranking Risk Criticality Introduction A Prioritization Algorithm A Model for Measuring Risk in Engineering Enterprise Systems A Unifying Risk Analytic Framework and Process Summary Random Processes and Queuing Theory Introduction Deterministic Process Random Process Markov Process Queuing Theory Basic Queuing Models Applications to Engineering Systems Summary Extreme Event Theory Introduction to Extreme and Rare Events Extreme and Rare Events and Engineering Systems Traditional Data Analysis Extreme Value Analysis Extreme Event Probability Distributions Limit Distributions Determining Domain of Attraction Using Inverse Function Determining Domain of Attraction Using Graphical Method Complex Systems and Extreme and Rare Events Summary Prioritization Systems in Highly Networked Environments Introduction Priority Systems Types of Priority Systems Summary Risks of Extreme Events in Complex Queuing Systems Introduction Risk of Extreme Latency Conditions for Unbounded Latency Conditions for Bounded Latency Derived Performance Measures Optimization of PS Summary Appendix: Bernoulli Utility and the St. Petersburg Paradox References Index Questions and Exercises appear at the end of each chapter.
Abstract: "Preface Engineering today's systems is a challenging and complex task. Increasingly, systems are engineered by bringing together many separate systems, which together provide an overall capability that is otherwise not possible. Many systems no longer physically exist within clearly defined boundaries, are characterized by their ubiquity and lack of specification, and are unbounded, for example, the Internet. More and more communication systems, transportation systems, and financial systems connect across domains and seamlessly interface with an uncountable number of users, information repositories, applications, and services. These systems are an enterprise of people, processes, technologies, and organizations. Enterprise systems operate in network-centric ways to deliver capabilities through richly interconnected networks of information and communication technologies. Engineering enterprise system is an emerging discipline. It encompasses and extends traditional systems engineering to create and evolve webs of systems and systems-of-systems. In addition, engineering management and management sciences communities need new approaches for analyzing and managing risk in engineering enterprise systems. The aim of this book is to present advances in methods designed to address this need. This book is organized around a set of advanced topics in risk analysis that are related to engineering enterprise systems. They include the following: A risk analytical framework for engineering enterprise systems Capability portfolio risk management Functional dependency network analysis (FDNA) Extreme-event theory Prioritization systems in highly networked enterprise environments Measuring risks of extreme latencies in complex queuing networks"