✦ LIBER ✦

Accuracy Analysis with Special Reference to the Prediction of Grassland Yield

✍ Scribed by O. Brian Allen; B. L. Raktoe

Publisher: John Wiley and Sons
Year: 1981
Tongue: English
Weight: 923 KB
Volume: 23
Category: Article
ISSN: 0323-3847
DOI: 10.1002/bimj.4710230404

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

Abstract

In this paper techniques are presented which allow the evaluation of accuracy of prediction methods, with special reference to the prediction of grassland yield. The more prominent methods of predicting grassland yield are discussed. Two coefficients, which are normalizations of the mean‐squared‐error, are proposed as measures of accuracy. It is shown that the mean‐squared‐error partitions into the sum of three meaningful components of error. The distribution of the components is discussed under the assumption that the actual and predicted yields have a bivariate normal distribution. The problem of accuracy analysis is addressed when one is only interested in ranking the yields of grassland areas. The ratio of the mean‐squared‐error for two competing prediction methods is investigated. Finally, a multiplicative model is studied which allows predicting ability to differ over time or over regions.

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