✦ LIBER ✦
A Stochastic Epidemic Model with Seasonal Variations in Infection Rate
✍ Scribed by Dr. Prajneshu; C. K. Gupta; Usha Sharma
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 1986
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 293 KB
- Volume
- 28
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0323-3847
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✦ Synopsis
In this paper we conaider a modification of Bailey'e atochaatic model for the spread of an epidemic when there are maaonal variations in infection rate. The resulting nonlinear model is analyzed by employing the diffusion approximation technique. We have shown that for a large population the p r o w , on suitable scaling and normalization, convergee to a non-stationary Ornatein-Uhlenbeck proceea. Consequently the number of infectivea haa in the steady state a gauasian distribution.