𝔖 Bobbio Scriptorium
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A Stochastic Epidemic Model with Seasonal Variations in Infection Rate

✍ Scribed by Dr. Prajneshu; C. K. Gupta; Usha Sharma


Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1986
Tongue
English
Weight
293 KB
Volume
28
Category
Article
ISSN
0323-3847

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✦ Synopsis


In this paper we conaider a modification of Bailey'e atochaatic model for the spread of an epidemic when there are maaonal variations in infection rate. The resulting nonlinear model is analyzed by employing the diffusion approximation technique. We have shown that for a large population the p r o w , on suitable scaling and normalization, convergee to a non-stationary Ornatein-Uhlenbeck proceea. Consequently the number of infectivea haa in the steady state a gauasian distribution.