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A Simple Probabilistic Model to Estimate the Population of near-Earth Asteroids

✍ Scribed by Germano D'Abramo; Alan W. Harris; Andrea Boattini; Stephanie C. Werner; Alan W. Harris; Giovanni B. Valsecchi

Publisher: Elsevier Science
Year: 2001
Tongue: English
Weight: 85 KB
Volume: 153
Category: Article
ISSN: 0019-1035
DOI: 10.1006/icar.2001.6650

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✦ Synopsis

A simple probabilistic model for estimating the population of near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) by comparing the rate of redetections of previously known asteroids of a given size with new detections during a test interval of time is described. We apply this method to the whole sample of NEA observations (discovery observations and observations from apparitions of previously known asteroids) made by the Lincoln near-Earth Asteroids Research Project within the period Jan. 1, 1999-Dec. 31, 2000 and published by the Minor Planet Center. The numbers of discoveries and redetections are sufficient to estimate the total population in the absolute magnitude range 13.5 < H ≤ 20.0. By this method we obtain an estimate of the number of NEAs of H ≤ 18.0 (diameter ≥ 1 km) of 855 ± 101. We note, however, that the expected biases of this method all work in the direction of underestimating the true population; thus our estimate is consistent with other recent estimates, for example, W. F.

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