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A Simple Model of Recurrent Epidemics

✍ Scribed by Anders Johansen

Book ID
102610549
Publisher
Elsevier Science
Year
1996
Tongue
English
Weight
469 KB
Volume
178
Category
Article
ISSN
0022-5193

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✦ Synopsis

A cellular automaton conceived as a simple model of disease spreading is investigated. We show that the steady-state of the model is described by a spatial organization of the infectious individuals on fronts and undamped temporal oscillations in the number of infectious individuals. This behaviour is observed both for a deterministic and a stochastic input of susceptible individuals, hence showing that recurrent epidemic behaviour can be persistent without any external forcing. The simplicity of the model suggests that such spatio--temporal behaviour can be obtained from nothing, but a direct transmission mechanism between nearest neighbors provided some mechanism for the introduction of new susceptible individuals, e.g., loss of immunity is present.

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