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A self-organization algorithm for real-time flood forecast

✍ Scribed by Fi-John Chang; Yuan-Yih Hwang

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1999
Tongue
English
Weight
205 KB
Volume
13
Category
Article
ISSN
0885-6087

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✦ Synopsis

The group method of data handling (GMDH) algorithm presented by A. C. Ivakhnenko and colleagues is an heuristic self-organization method. It establishes the input±output relationship of a complex system using a multilayered perception-type structure that is similar to a feed-forward multilayer neural network. This study provides a step towards understanding and evaluating a role for GMDH in the investigation of the complex rainfall±runo processes in a heterogeneous watershed in Taiwan. Two versions of the revised GMDH model are implemented: a stepwise regression procedure and a recursive formula. Eleven typhoon events in the Shen-cei Creek watershed, Taiwan, are used to build the model and verify its usefulness. The prediction results of the revised GMDH models and the instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) model are compared. Based on the criteria of forecasting precision and the rate and time of peak error, a much better performance is obtained with the revised GMDH models.

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