The simulation of large macroeconometric models containing forward-looking variables can become impractical when using exact Newton methods. The difficulties generally arise from the use of direct methods for the solution of the linear system in the Newton step. In such cases, nonstationary iterativ
A robust method for simulating forward-looking models
β Scribed by John Armstrong; Richard Black; Douglas Laxton; David Rose
- Publisher
- Elsevier Science
- Year
- 1998
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 838 KB
- Volume
- 22
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0165-1889
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
β¦ Synopsis
Methods of computing the type II iterations involved in extended path algorithms for the solution of economic models with forward-looking expectations are described. Particular attention is directed at a method involving the application of a Newton algorithm to a 'stacked' equation system that includes a separate equation for each endogeneous variable at each time point. Analytical results that establish convergence properties for linear models are presented.
Both the analytical results and empirical comparisons of the stacked Newton method and the popular Fair-Taylor approach indicate that the stacked Newton method is a viable alternative for medium-sized economic models.
π SIMILAR VOLUMES
## Abstract This paper characterizes a robust optimal policy rule in a simple forwardβlooking model, when the policymaker faces uncertainty about model parameters and shock processes. We show that the robust optimal policy rule is likely to involve a stronger response of the interest rate to fluctu
In this paper we propose a simulation-based technique to investigate the finite sample performance of likelihood ratio (LR) tests for the nonlinear restrictions that arise when a class of forward-looking (FL) models typically used in monetary policy analysis is evaluated with vector autoregressive (
## Abstract In this paper we consider the implications of a fully specified dynamic general equilibrium model, developed by Smets and Wouters (2003). This is a relatively largeβscale forwardβlooking model, which was shown to provide a good fit to the data. We show that systematically accounting for
In this paper, a dynamic macroscopic traffic simulation model was developed based on a highorder continuum-modeling scheme using a Boltzman-like analogy between traffic and gases to respond to high-density and low-density traffic flows. In addition, a queuing-based equilibrium speed-density relation