A non-linear dynamic model for multiplicative seasonal-trend decomposition
✍ Scribed by Tohru Ozaki; Peter Thomson
- Publisher
- John Wiley and Sons
- Year
- 2002
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 177 KB
- Volume
- 21
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0277-6693
- DOI
- 10.1002/for.816
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Abstract
A non‐linear dynamic model is introduced for multiplicative seasonal time series that follows and extends the X‐11 paradigm where the observed time series is a product of trend, seasonal and irregular factors. A selection of standard seasonal and trend component models used in additive dynamic time series models are adapted for the multiplicative framework and a non‐linear filtering procedure is proposed. The results are illustrated and compared to X‐11 and log‐additive models using real data. In particular it is shown that the new procedures do not suffer from the trend bias present in log‐additive models. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
📜 SIMILAR VOLUMES
A unifying perspective of non-linear structural dynamic systems as linear in the open loop with non-linear feedback in the closed loop has recently been revisited by the authors. The authors have previously used feedback to derive a new formulation of frequency response function matrices of non-line
Continuum and numerical formulations for non-linear dynamics of thin shells are presented in this work. An elastodynamic shell model is developed from the three-dimensional continuum by employing standard assumptions of the ÿrst-order shear-deformation theories. Motion of the shell-director is descr