✦ LIBER ✦

A new method of evaluating the accuracy of economic forecasts

✍ Scribed by James Cicarelli

Book ID: 113247242
Publisher: Elsevier Science
Year: 1982
Tongue: English
Weight: 398 KB
Volume: 4
Category: Article
ISSN: 0164-0704
DOI: 10.1016/0164-0704(82)90065-9

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

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This paper deals with the question of selecting an appropriate measure of compatibility (also called Scoring Rule) between probabilistic models and empirical data. It is natural to require that if the model predicts the occurrence of an observed event with probability p < 1, then the compatibility m