A multinomial project evaluation and review technique for information systems analysis and design

✍ Scribed by Douglas G. Bonett; Richard F. Deckro

• Publisher: Elsevier Science
• Year: 1993
• Tongue: English
• Weight: 445 KB
• Volume: 25
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0378-7206
• DOI: 10.1016/0378-7206(93)90025-o

✦ Synopsis

PERT is an important tool for the management of information systems design and analysis projects. In applications where the activity completion times are uncertain, the classic PERT approach is based on the assumption that each activity time follows a Beta distribution.

In addition, the composite project duration is assumed to follow a normal distribution. Such assumptions are unrealistic in many information system projects. A new approach to project review and evaluation is proposed, based on a multinomial distribution for activity times. This new approach leads to an exact discrete distribution of the project duration.

The results are illustrated in an information systems and design example.