A mathematical model for assessing the temporal association between health disorders and medical treatments
✍ Scribed by Sheldon H. Jacobson; Douglas J. Morrice
- Publisher
- Elsevier Science
- Year
- 1998
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 161 KB
- Volume
- 71
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0378-3758
No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.
✦ Synopsis
Statistical analysis is often used in medical studies to provide evidence for an association between a treatment and a patient condition. The work in this paper is motivated by a recent medical study which analyzes the temporal association between a treatment (i.e., an implant procedure) and the rare autoimmune disorders, polymyositis and dermatomyositis (PM=DM). To address this association mathematically, this paper develops a probability model based on the multinomial distribution that can be used to make statistical inferences about the timing of incidences of a treatment=condition pair. The model is empirically studied using Monte Carlo simulation. It is also analytically solved using the two ball and urn model formulations and a convolution formulation. Solution algorithms are given that can be executed in polynomial time and thus have the potential to be used as real-time decision support tools. Data from the medical study illustrate the application of this model and its results.