A Markov model of land-use change dynamics in the Niagara Region, Ontario, Canada
✍ Scribed by Michael R. Muller; John Middleton
- Publisher
- Springer
- Year
- 1994
- Tongue
- English
- Weight
- 450 KB
- Volume
- 9
- Category
- Article
- ISSN
- 0921-2973
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✦ Synopsis
Regional Niagara is the site of an intense three-way land-use conflict among urban, agricultural and natural uses. Large scale spatial and temporal land-use data were used to investigate the dynamics of land-use change in this area. A first order Markov chain was used as a stochastic model to make quantitative comparisons of the land-use changes between discrete time periods extending from 1935 to 1981.
The Markov model allowed for two main conclusions about the historic dynamics of land-use change in the Regional Municipality of Niagara.
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The urbanization of agricultural land was the predominant land-use change.
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A continuing 'exchange' of land area occurs between wooded and agricultural land-use categories that has little effect on the net amount of wooded land but which could undermine the long-term ecological value of remaining natural areas in Niagara.
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