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A high–low model of daily stock price ranges

✍ Scribed by Yan-Leung Cheung; Yin-Wong Cheung; Alan T. K. Wan

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2009
Tongue
English
Weight
163 KB
Volume
28
Category
Article
ISSN
0277-6693

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✦ Synopsis

Abstract

We observe that daily highs and lows of stock prices do not diverge over time and, hence, adopt the cointegration concept and the related vector error correction model (VECM) to model the daily high, the daily low, and the associated daily range data. The in‐sample results attest to the importance of incorporating high–low interactions in modeling the range variable. In evaluating the out‐of‐sample forecast performance using both mean‐squared forecast error and direction of change criteria, it is found that the VECM‐based low and high forecasts offer some advantages over alternative forecasts. The VECM‐based range forecasts, on the other hand, do not always dominate—the forecast rankings depend on the choice of evaluation criterion and the variables being forecast. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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