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A compound reconstructed prediction model for nonstationary climate processes

✍ Scribed by Geli Wang; Peicai Yang

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2005
Tongue
English
Weight
952 KB
Volume
25
Category
Article
ISSN
0899-8418

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✦ Synopsis

Based on the idea of climate hierarchy and the theory of state space reconstruction, a local approximation prediction model with the compound structure is built for predicting some nonstationary climate process. By means of this model and the data sets consisting of north Indian Ocean sea-surface temperature, Asian zonal circulation index and monthly mean precipitation anomaly from 37 observation stations in the Inner Mongolia area of China (IMC), a regional prediction experiment for the winter precipitation of IMC is also carried out. When using the same sign ratio R between the prediction field and the actual field to measure the prediction accuracy, an averaged R of 63% given by 10 predictions samples is reached.

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