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A comparison of tropical temperature trends with model predictions

✍ Scribed by David H. Douglass; John R. Christy; Benjamin D. Pearson; S. Fred Singer

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2008
Tongue
English
Weight
124 KB
Volume
28
Category
Article
ISSN
0899-8418

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✦ Synopsis

Abstract

We examine tropospheric temperature trends of 67 runs from 22 β€˜Climate of the 20th Century’ model simulations and try to reconcile them with the best available updated observations (in the tropics during the satellite era). Model results and observed temperature trends are in disagreement in most of the tropical troposphere, being separated by more than twice the uncertainty of the model mean. In layers near 5 km, the modelled trend is 100 to 300% higher than observed, and, above 8 km, modelled and observed trends have opposite signs. These conclusions contrast strongly with those of recent publications based on essentially the same data. Copyright Β© 2007 Royal Meteorological Society

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## Abstract A recent report of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) identified a β€˜__potentially serious inconsistency__’ between modelled and observed trends in tropical lapse rates (Karl __et al.__, 2006). Early versions of satellite and radiosonde datasets suggested that the tropical su