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A comparison of forecasts from least absolute value and least squares regression

✍ Scribed by Terry E. Dielman


Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1986
Tongue
English
Weight
462 KB
Volume
5
Category
Article
ISSN
0277-6693

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✦ Synopsis


A Monte Carlo simulation is used to compare forecasts from least absolute value and least squares estimated regression equations. When outliers are present, the least absolute value forecasts are shown to be superior to least squares forecasts. The results emphasize the importance of exercising caution when using forecasts from least squares estimated regressions. Use of least absolute value regression (or some other robust regression method) instead of, or as an adjunct to, least squares is recommended. The comparison of forecasts from the two methods provides one way of assessing whether the least squares forecasts have been adversely affected by outliers. If outliers are present, the least absolute value regression forecasts can be used.


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