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A bayesian approach to modelling stochastic cycles

✍ Scribed by G. H. Brasil; Prof. R. C. Souza


Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
1993
Tongue
English
Weight
625 KB
Volume
12
Category
Article
ISSN
0277-6693

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✦ Synopsis


This article deals with a fully Bayesian approach to describe the cyclical behaviour of a univariate time series. A damped sine wave where both the period and the damping factor are time varying is assumed as the underlying mathematical model for the cyclical component. The model is applied to two real data sets; the annual rainfall observations in Fortaleza, Brazil, and the annual Wolf sunspot numbers.


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