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A Bayesian approach to estimating benefits of improved forecasts

✍ Scribed by Hauke L. Kite-Powell; Andrew R. Solow

Publisher
John Wiley and Sons
Year
2007
Tongue
English
Weight
359 KB
Volume
1
Category
Article
ISSN
1350-4827

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

✦ Synopsis

W e describe a Bayesian approach to estimating the economic benefits f r o m improved forecasts. The approach takes explicit account of how decision makers use forecast information, and can provide more reliable estimates of benefits than methods based on mitigated impacts. W e discuss some practical considerations in applying the approach to weather and climate forecasts, and describe the results of an application to ENSO prediction.

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