96/01621 Derivation of class load pattern by field test for temperature sensitivity analysis

• Publisher: Elsevier Science
• Year: 1996
• Weight: 177 KB
• Volume: 37
• Category: Article
• ISSN: 0140-6701
• DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6701(96)93583-3

✦ Synopsis

Power Sysfems Res., Sep. 1995, 34, (3)

, -. In this aper, en adaptive ARMA (Autoregressive moving-average) model la deve aped for short-term load forecasting of a power system. For short-P term load forecasting, the Box-Jenkins transfer function approach has been regarded as one of the most accurate methods. However, the Box-Jenkins approach without adapting the forecasting errors available to update the forecast has limited accuracy. The adaptive approach first derives the error learning coefficients by virtue of minimum mean square error (MMSE) theory and then u errors and the toe A?* ates the forecasts based on one-step ahead forecast uents. Due to its ada deal with any unusual system condition. #h tive capability, the algorithm can e employed algorithm has been tested and compared wrth the Box-Jenkins approach. 96/01610