✦ LIBER ✦

2.5. Probabilistic forecasting

✍ Scribed by Andrew J. Lepinski

Publisher: Elsevier Science
Year: 1990
Tongue: English
Weight: 400 KB
Volume: 15
Category: Article
ISSN: 1751-4223
DOI: 10.1016/0360-5442(90)90089-k

No coin nor oath required. For personal study only.

📜 SIMILAR VOLUMES

Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes

✍ Yan Y. Kagan; David D. Jackson 📂 Article 📅 2000 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 818 KB

Conditional distribution analyses of pro

Conditional distribution analyses of probabilistic forecasts

✍ J. Frank Yates; Shawn P. Curley 📂 Article 📅 1985 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 805 KB

Probabilistic forecasts have good 'external correspondence' if events that are assigned probabilities close to I tend to occur frequently, whereas those assigned probabilities near 0 tend to occur rarely. This paper describes simple procedures for analysing external correspondence into meaningful co

Information gain as a score for probabil

Information gain as a score for probabilistic forecasts

✍ Riccardo Peirolo 📂 Article 📅 2011 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 220 KB

## Abstract A measure of the information added by a probabilistic forecast to that contained in the climatological distribution is presented in this paper. This measure, called information gain, is mathematically closely related to the traditional ignorance score, but is more intuitive. Its advanta

Communicating the value of probabilistic

Communicating the value of probabilistic forecasts with weather roulette

✍ Renate Hagedorn; Leonard A. Smith 📂 Article 📅 2009 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 261 KB

## Abstract In times of ever increasing financial constraints on public weather services it is of growing importance to communicate the value of their forecasts and products. While many diagnostic tools exist to evaluate forecast systems, intuitive diagnostics for communicating the skill of probabi

The Forecast Interpretation Tool—a Monte

The Forecast Interpretation Tool—a Monte Carlo technique for blending climatic distributions with probabilistic forecasts

✍ Gregory J. Husak; Joel Michaelsen; Phaedon Kyriakidis; James P. Verdin; Chris Fu 📂 Article 📅 2011 🏛 John Wiley and Sons 🌐 English ⚖ 227 KB

## Abstract Probabilistic forecasts are produced from a variety of outlets to help predict rainfall, and other meteorological events, for periods of 1 month or more. Such forecasts are expressed as probabilities of a rainfall event, e.g. being in the upper, middle, or lower third of the relevant di

An economic basis for certain methods of

An economic basis for certain methods of evaluating probabilistic forecasts

✍ Judea Pearl 📂 Article 📅 1978 🏛 Elsevier Science ⚖ 505 KB

This paper deals with the question of selecting an appropriate measure of compatibility (also called Scoring Rule) between probabilistic models and empirical data. It is natural to require that if the model predicts the occurrence of an observed event with probability p < 1, then the compatibility m